May 17, 2006
Playing the Fear card

Forbes and CNN picked up the same AP story with the scary premise - Mexico on the verge of chaos - as did ten Spanish language papers under the title " Temen el caos en México en vísperas de elecciones". Both versions claim the same thing:

"A poll published Friday in Excelsior newspaper found 50 percent of respondents feared the government was on the brink of losing control."

Mexico Voters Fear Nation on Edge of Chaos - Forbes.com

CNN.com - Fear gnaws Mexicans as vote nears - May 17, 2006

From the story:

George Grayson, a Mexico expert at the College of William & Mary, said the violence reflects Fox's lack of leadership.

"The state has become much weaker under his watch," Grayson said.

Recent polls show Calderon has overtaken longtime presidential front-runner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, whom opponents have portrayed as a leftist demagogue similar to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

But that could change if PRI candidate Roberto Madrazo can convince voters that Mexico was more stable under his party's 71-year reign, which ended with Fox's victory in 2000.

Here's the Excelsior report on the poll:

Excelsior - El periodico de la vida nacional - Conflictos atemorizan a mexicanos

Regarding the 50% responses:

"Así lo demuestra una encuesta de Parametría en la cual se aprecia que 50 por ciento de los entrevistados cree que el país está en peligro."

Headline: Conflicts frighten Mexicans. That's sensible enough. What do 50% believe? That the country is in danger. Of what it does not say. Nowhere does it say the country is on the verge of chaos or that that is what people fear. And reading the column for other figures, the responses are much more diverse, with people placing blame on both the state and federal governments.

This has to be based on a new PRI campaign talking point. Go back to the old repressive PRI government for another 71 years? We'll see if that's really the national mood.

Posted by Dave at May 17, 2006 10:25 PM